We're anxiously awaiting the season tip here, so how bout a preseason post? Everybody's doing it!
The Big 3
1) Purdue Boilermakers
Matt Painter has managed to set in motion a return to success the program hasn't seen since Gene Keady was still prowling the bench. He guided Purdue to 25 wins and a second place conference finish on the strength of a recruiting class that produced two double-digit freshman scorers in Robbie Hummel and E'Twaun Moore, and a third who averaged 8.2 (Scott Martin). Martin has since transferred to Notre Dame, but Hummel, Moore, and third leading scorer Keaton Grant all return, along with Big Ten Defensive player of the year Chris Kramer, meaning the Boilermakers are the front-runners for the conference title, as well as borderline candidates to make it to Detroit.
Non-Conference Importance
12/2: Duke
12/20: Davidson
Winning these two games would likely guarantee the Boilermakers a top-10 ranking and give them a big shot of confidence heading into Big Ten play. Losing one, or both, would seriously dampen expectations considering both will be contested at Mackey Arena.
2) Michigan State Spartans
Lagging just behind the Boilermakers are the Spartans. Michigan State has a national Player-of-the-Year candidate in Raymar Morgan, as well as an elite freshman (Delvon Roe) and a phenomenally fast point guard (Kalin Lucas). This team probably has the most physically gifted roster in the conference, but Roe is injured, coming off microfracture knee surgery, and Lucas will have to adjust to playing full-time with the departure of scoring-machine Drew Neitzel, so there are enough questions here that the edge should probably be given to the team that edged them out last year.
Non-Conference Importance
12/3: North Carolina
12/20: @ Texas
The 12/3 “home” game (it'll be played at the Palace of Auburn Hills in Detroit) with North Carolina might be the best chance anyone has all season of beating the Tar Heels, especially if Hansbrough and Marcus Ginyard aren't completely healthy. The matchup with Texas ought to provide another good measuring stick for Izzo's crew, as both are ranked top-10 in the preseason polls, with Morgan matching up with bruiser Damion Jones and Lucas battling A.J. Abrams and whoever the Longhorns manage to find at point this year.
3) Wisconsin Badgers
The Badgers are coming off back-to-back 30-win seasons, best in the conference, and, thanks to Bo Ryan's coaching genius, it's not inconceivable that they could do the same again this year. They return potential all-conference guards in Trevon Hughes at point and Jason Bohannon at the two-spot. Hughes will be especially interesting to see – he should finally be free of the nagging ankle injury he sustained early last year, and another year of Ryan fundamentals should do wonders for his assist-to-turnover ratio. In the frontcourt, they return pre-season all-conference forward and possible NBA pick Marcus Landry, as well as defensive bulldog Joe Krabbenhoft. The biggest question with this team concerns the replacement of Brian Butch. He wasn't anything special in the paint, but his outside shooting ability was the key to Ryan's swing offense past two years (after he got hurt in 2006, the Badgers were a completely different team for the remainder of the season). Sophomore Jon Leuer has the closest skill set to Butch's, but he'll probably share time with the much bulkier Keaton Nankivil in the post.
Non-Conference Importance
12/6: @Marquette
12/23: Texas
The annual grudge match with in-state rival Marquette will probably be closely contested as always. Wisconsin has the backcourt depth to at least run with the Golden Eagles' guards, and Buzz Williams' new team doesn't have much in the way of frontcourt talent to expose the Badgers' lack of experience down low. The game with Texas will provide an entertaining rematch of Wisconsin's memorable last-second win on the road in Austin last season.
Teams on the Cusp
4) Ohio State Buckeyes
Thad Matta has proven he's an elite recruiter, but he hasn't yet shown he has the coaching chops to hang with Ryan and Izzo consistently. The Buckeyes return slasher David Lighty, and add the usual cadre of highly touted freshman, including top center BJ Mullens. However, the Buckeyes have only one senior on a team returning from an NIT berth, so someone will have to step up if they want to make some serious noise in the conference.
Interesting Games
12/2: @Miami (Fl.)
12/6: @Notre Dame
5) Minnesota Golden Gophers
Somehow the Gophers athletic department has thrown down two impressive turnarounds this year. The football team went from 1 win a year ago to 7-2 through nine games this season and a top-25 ranking, and Tubby Smith took the same team that won just 9 games in 2006 to 20 wins and an NIT berth in 2007. For 2008, he's recruited well, but the team lost their 3 top scorers so a NCAA tourney berth is probably unrealistic, though not completely out of the picture considering Smith returns Lawrence Westbrook and added two top-100 recruits.
Interesting Games
12/20: Louisville
Possibly Decent
6) Illinois Fighting Illini
The surprise emergence of Demetri McCamey last season, combined with the transfer of Alex Legion from Kentucky should give Bruce Weber a solid backcourt. Whether that is enough to make up for the loss of Shaun Pruitt and Brian Randle in the frontcourt remains to be seen.
The Rest
7) Northwestern
8) Michigan
9) Iowa
10) Penn State
11) Indiana
Monday, November 10, 2008
Sunday, March 2, 2008
The Madness Returns
Ah, how sweet it is. Another year gone by, another blog abandoned, and a new start for this years' tourney. It's been one of the most unpredictable years to date in college basketball, and thus even harder for any sort of predictions to be legitimately backed up. Since my co-blogger has chosen the Big 10 to analyze this year, I only find it fitting to complement his quips with coverage of the Big East, one of the least competitive 'Bigs' but certainly far from the least talented.
This year has been inconsistent at best for the Big East, and likewise, their tourney seeds will be highly contested no matter where a team stands. That said, I can only see six teams with locks in this years tourney : Georgetown, Louisville, UConn, Notre Dame, Marquette, and Pittsburgh.
Georgetown will be a high number 3 seed, though they have been very fortunate this year. Close wins due to questionable calls with Marquette, Villanova, UConn, and Syracuse have solidified their spot atop the conference, but does not accurately reflect the team as a whole. Inconsistent play and a good amount of luck have gotten them to this point, and I can't honestly see them getting out of the second round alive. That said, wins and losses are the most important part of any selection debate, and Georgetown boasts a 24-4 record with impressive road wins.
Louisville will be a 5 seed at best. 24-6 looks good on the surface, but this is a team with losses to BYU, Dayton, Cincinatti, and Seton Hall. They've pulled together a string of 9 consecutive wins to close out conference play, but they'll likely close out the season with a loss to Georgetown. 24-7 is a decent record to take into the tourney, but the losses will catch up with them.
UConn has been one of the years biggest surprises, blowing up for a ten game win streak at the beginning of conference play. I can see them as a 6 seed, despite their record, because of losses to Gonzaga and Providence, and a relatively weak non conference schedule. I think this team has the potential and balance to go far in the tourney, but I believe playing on a neutral court will, in turn, neutralize some of the momentum this team has. UConn was on fire mid-season, but now will have to try to regain some of that flame instead of sputtering out.
Notre Dame goes as Brett Favre, I mean Luke Harangody, produces. It is a one man team, and even if he scores 40 points (cough...Louisville...cough) they can still fall short of an actual win. I see them as a 7 seed, losing in the first round to a hotter, more balanced, mid major team.
Marquette is my team, that said, I hate Tom Crean, and Dominic James seems to do as much as he possibly can to sabotage the team's chances every year. I think Marquette has a chance at a 5 seed, but they have a very good shot at losing in the first round. If Burke, Mbakwe, and Barro can do enough to actually act like big men, Marquette has a shot to go far. Knowing Tom Crean, I don't have much hope.
Combine Pittsburgh's anemic offense and their aggressive defense and one doesn't really know where to stand. They've suffered several injuries to important players, and it really will depend how well they can blend as a team to project their tourney fate. I see them as an 8 seed, and a chance to make it to the sweet 16
This year has been inconsistent at best for the Big East, and likewise, their tourney seeds will be highly contested no matter where a team stands. That said, I can only see six teams with locks in this years tourney : Georgetown, Louisville, UConn, Notre Dame, Marquette, and Pittsburgh.
Georgetown will be a high number 3 seed, though they have been very fortunate this year. Close wins due to questionable calls with Marquette, Villanova, UConn, and Syracuse have solidified their spot atop the conference, but does not accurately reflect the team as a whole. Inconsistent play and a good amount of luck have gotten them to this point, and I can't honestly see them getting out of the second round alive. That said, wins and losses are the most important part of any selection debate, and Georgetown boasts a 24-4 record with impressive road wins.
Louisville will be a 5 seed at best. 24-6 looks good on the surface, but this is a team with losses to BYU, Dayton, Cincinatti, and Seton Hall. They've pulled together a string of 9 consecutive wins to close out conference play, but they'll likely close out the season with a loss to Georgetown. 24-7 is a decent record to take into the tourney, but the losses will catch up with them.
UConn has been one of the years biggest surprises, blowing up for a ten game win streak at the beginning of conference play. I can see them as a 6 seed, despite their record, because of losses to Gonzaga and Providence, and a relatively weak non conference schedule. I think this team has the potential and balance to go far in the tourney, but I believe playing on a neutral court will, in turn, neutralize some of the momentum this team has. UConn was on fire mid-season, but now will have to try to regain some of that flame instead of sputtering out.
Notre Dame goes as Brett Favre, I mean Luke Harangody, produces. It is a one man team, and even if he scores 40 points (cough...Louisville...cough) they can still fall short of an actual win. I see them as a 7 seed, losing in the first round to a hotter, more balanced, mid major team.
Marquette is my team, that said, I hate Tom Crean, and Dominic James seems to do as much as he possibly can to sabotage the team's chances every year. I think Marquette has a chance at a 5 seed, but they have a very good shot at losing in the first round. If Burke, Mbakwe, and Barro can do enough to actually act like big men, Marquette has a shot to go far. Knowing Tom Crean, I don't have much hope.
Combine Pittsburgh's anemic offense and their aggressive defense and one doesn't really know where to stand. They've suffered several injuries to important players, and it really will depend how well they can blend as a team to project their tourney fate. I see them as an 8 seed, and a chance to make it to the sweet 16
Top Three Seeds
Here are my picks for the top 12 teams, based on how far I think they can go in the tournament (I'm only doing twelve because the rest of the top 25 is pretty interchangeable and hard to put into an order that'll generally hold up). I put these together based on how the teams should be seeded, not how they will be seeded.
#1 Seeds
1) UCLA
2) Texas
3) Kansas
4) Tennessee
#2 Seeds
5) Duke
6) Memphis
7) North Carolina
8) Stanford
#3 Seeds
9) Wisconsin
10) Georgetown
11) Notre Dame
12) Louisville
#1 Seeds
1) UCLA
2) Texas
3) Kansas
4) Tennessee
#2 Seeds
5) Duke
6) Memphis
7) North Carolina
8) Stanford
#3 Seeds
9) Wisconsin
10) Georgetown
11) Notre Dame
12) Louisville
March is upon us
March is here. Finally. I would have mentioned it earlier, but thanks to February's screwed up nature I didn't notice its arrival. Judging by Indiana's performance at Michigan State and Ohio State's woeful attack at Minnesota, it seems I'm not the only one to miss the start of the best month in the year.
Anyway, this year I've decided to concentrate on the Big Ten, as it's the conference I'm most familiar with. Maybe if I do that I'll actually be able to provide some meaningful info, rather than regurgitating the mostly already-regurgitated pundit commentary on the other conferences.
That said, here's my Week 1 seeding predictions for the Big Ten, ordered by current conference standings:
Purdue:
Currently at a weak 4-seed. Might move up to a 3-seed with a win in the conference tournament, or down to a 5-seed with an early loss. For now early season losses hold back their three best wins (sweep of Wisconsin, and win over Michigan State at home).
Wisconsin:
Currently a low 3-seed. An early exit in the conference tournament will probably drop them down a level but for now they're pretty set thanks to the early road win at Texas, and a likely shared or outright Big Ten regular season title. There's an outside possibility that they move up to a 2-seed if they win the conference tourney, but I'd be surprised because of the home loss to Purdue combined with the propensity of the committee to ignore the results of the Big Ten tourney.
Indiana:
I'd give Indiana a 5-seed at best at this point. Their best wins are a sweep of Ohio State and a home win over Michigan State. Normally the win over Izzo and Co. would look pretty good, but following it up by giving up 59 in the first half in East Lansing won't look too pleasant to the committee, I'd wager. I can't imagine they'd move up to a 4-seed, even with an improbable win in the conference tourney.
Michigan State:
MSU is a 6-seed at this point. Their best win, in a "neutral-court" game against Texas (it was played at the Palace of Auburn Hills, so basically at home), is more than overshadowed by losses at Penn State and Iowa. The win over Texas and decent performance against UCLA (both 2-seeds at worst), however, gives them more room to maneuver if they win in Conseco. If they manage to win the conference tourney, they'll probably move up to a 5-seed, maybe a 4-seed if the right teams ahead of them fall early in the conference tourneys.
Ohio State and Minnesota:
These two are the only other teams in the Big ten with even a smidgen of hope for the NCAA's. Ohio State needs a run to the conference semi's and Minnesota needs a run to the finals, each with at least one win over the top 4 conference teams. If either of them do pull off the mini-Cinderella, look for them to be seeded in double-digits (I won't try to predict what ones since the low seeds usually fluctuate based on the small-conference auto-bids, but major conference teams usually get a 12-seed at least).
Anyway, this year I've decided to concentrate on the Big Ten, as it's the conference I'm most familiar with. Maybe if I do that I'll actually be able to provide some meaningful info, rather than regurgitating the mostly already-regurgitated pundit commentary on the other conferences.
That said, here's my Week 1 seeding predictions for the Big Ten, ordered by current conference standings:
Purdue:
Currently at a weak 4-seed. Might move up to a 3-seed with a win in the conference tournament, or down to a 5-seed with an early loss. For now early season losses hold back their three best wins (sweep of Wisconsin, and win over Michigan State at home).
Wisconsin:
Currently a low 3-seed. An early exit in the conference tournament will probably drop them down a level but for now they're pretty set thanks to the early road win at Texas, and a likely shared or outright Big Ten regular season title. There's an outside possibility that they move up to a 2-seed if they win the conference tourney, but I'd be surprised because of the home loss to Purdue combined with the propensity of the committee to ignore the results of the Big Ten tourney.
Indiana:
I'd give Indiana a 5-seed at best at this point. Their best wins are a sweep of Ohio State and a home win over Michigan State. Normally the win over Izzo and Co. would look pretty good, but following it up by giving up 59 in the first half in East Lansing won't look too pleasant to the committee, I'd wager. I can't imagine they'd move up to a 4-seed, even with an improbable win in the conference tourney.
Michigan State:
MSU is a 6-seed at this point. Their best win, in a "neutral-court" game against Texas (it was played at the Palace of Auburn Hills, so basically at home), is more than overshadowed by losses at Penn State and Iowa. The win over Texas and decent performance against UCLA (both 2-seeds at worst), however, gives them more room to maneuver if they win in Conseco. If they manage to win the conference tourney, they'll probably move up to a 5-seed, maybe a 4-seed if the right teams ahead of them fall early in the conference tourneys.
Ohio State and Minnesota:
These two are the only other teams in the Big ten with even a smidgen of hope for the NCAA's. Ohio State needs a run to the conference semi's and Minnesota needs a run to the finals, each with at least one win over the top 4 conference teams. If either of them do pull off the mini-Cinderella, look for them to be seeded in double-digits (I won't try to predict what ones since the low seeds usually fluctuate based on the small-conference auto-bids, but major conference teams usually get a 12-seed at least).
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